The imbalance of food and biofuel markets amid Ukraine-Russia crisis: A systems thinking perspective

Document Type : Perspective

Authors

1 Department of Environment, Land and Infrastructure Engineering (DIATI), Politecnico di Torino, Turin, Italy.

2 Energy CenterL, Politecnico di Torino, Turin, Italy.

3 Department of Economics and Statistics "Cognetti de Martiis", University of Turin, Turin, Italy.

4 School of Business and Law, Edith Cowan University, Joondalup, Australia.

5 Department of Management, University of Turin, Turin, Italy.

Abstract

The Ukraine war has immensely affected both food and energy systems due to the significant role of Russia in supplying natural gas and fertilizers globally and the extensive contribution of both Russia and Ukraine in exporting grains and oilseeds to the international markets. Hence, the Ukraine-Russia conflict has resulted in a shortage of crops and grains in the food market, especially in Europe, causing speculations if these resources should still be used for biofuel production (1st Generation). However, the International Energy Agency has warned that lowering biofuel mandates could result in rising petroleum demand and supply concerns. In light of these unfolding events, a systems thinking approach is required to monitor and analyze the implications of this crisis for food and biofuel markets as a whole to alleviate the concerns faced and plan sustainably. In this vein, based on the trade-offs between food system elements and the biofuel supply chain, as well as the potential effects of the war on the food and energy systems worldwide, a causal loop diagram is developed in the present work. According to the insights provided, the key to preventing food insecurity and keeping biofuel mandates on an increasing trend simultaneously amid the Ukraine war is to switch from the 1st Generation biofuels to higher generations. This transition would reduce not only the pressure on the food market to move toward zero hunger (SDG 2) but also pave the way to move towards a circular economy and clean and affordable energy (SDG 7) during the post-war era.

Graphical Abstract

The imbalance of food and biofuel markets amid Ukraine-Russia crisis: A systems thinking perspective

Highlights

  • The Ukraine-Russia war has significantly impacted food and energy markets.
  • A systemic approach is needed to analyze the war implications for the market.
  • Transition from 1st generation biofuels to higher generations is key to balancing the already volatile market.
  • The war has directly and adversely influenced achieving the SDG 2 and SDG 7.

Keywords

References

  1. Agarwal, D., Sharma, D., 2020. Food processing waste to biofuel: a sustainable approach, in: Thakur, M., Modi, V.K., Khedkar, R., Singh, K. (Eds.), Sustainable food waste management. Springer Singapore, Singapore, pp. 371–386.
  2. Ameli, M., Shams Esfandabadi, Z., Sadeghi, S., Ranjbari, M., Zanetti, M.C., 2022. COVID-19 and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): Scenario analysis through fuzzy cognitive map modeling. Gondwana Res.
  3. Ansah, I., 2014. Biofuel and food security: insights from a system dynamics model. The case of Ghana. Master of Philosophy Dissertation, University of Bergen, Norway.
  4. Benton, T.G., Froggatt, A., Wellesley, L., Grafham, O., King, R., Morisetti, N., Nixey, J., Schröder, P., 2022. The Ukraine war and threats to food and energy security: Cascading risks from rising prices and supply disruptions. Environment and Society Programme, Chatham House, the Royal Institute of International Affairs, London, UK.
  5. Biofuels International, 2022. IEA warns against cutting biofuel mandates due to Ukraine war.
  6. Chen, M., Atiqul Haq, S.M., Ahmed, K.J., Hussain, A.H.M.B., Ahmed, M.N.Q., 2021. The link between climate change, food security and fertility: The case of Bangladesh. PLoS One. 16, e0258196.
  7. FAO, 2009. Declaration of the World Summit on Food Security, World Summit on Food Security.
  8. Forliano, C., Ferraris, A., Bivona, E., Couturier, J., 2022. Pouring new wine into old bottles: A dynamic perspective of the interplay among environmental dynamism, capabilities development, and performance. J. Bus. Res. 142, 448–463.
  9. Grunwald, M., 2022. Biofuels are accelerating the food crisis — and the climate crisis, too. Canary Media.
  10. Hassan, M.H., Kalam, M.A., 2013. An overview of biofuel as a renewable energy source: development and challenges. Procedia Eng. 56, 39–53.
  11. Hosseinzadeh-Bandbafha, H., Nizami, A.-S., Kalogirou, S.A., Gupta, V.K., Park, Y.K., Fallahi, A., Sulaiman, A., Ranjbari, M., Rahnama, H., Aghbashlo, M., Peng, W., Tabatabaei, M., 2022. Environmental life cycle assessment of biodiesel production from waste cooking oil: A systematic review. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 161, 112411.
  12. Jin, E., Mendis, G.P., Sutherland, J.W., 2019. Integrated sustainability assessment for a bioenergy system: A system dynamics model of switchgrass for cellulosic ethanol production in the U.S. midwest. J. Clean. Prod. 234, 503–520.
  13. Koizumi, T., 2015. Biofuels and food security. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 52, 829–841.
  14. Le Page, M., 2022. Cutting biofuels can help avoid global food shock from Ukraine war. New Scientist.
  15. Martínez-Jaramillo, J.E., Arango-Aramburo, S., Giraldo-Ramírez, D.P., 2019. The effects of biofuels on food security: A system dynamics approach for the Colombian case. Sustain. Energy Technol. Assessments 34, 97–109.
  16. Papachristos, G., Struben, J., 2020. System dynamics methodology and research, in: Moallemi, E.A., de Haan, F.J. (Eds.), Modelling Transitions. Routledge, London, UK, pp. 119–138.
  17. Pruyt, E., Sitter, G. De, 2008. ‘Food or Energy?’ Is that the question?, in: Proceedings of the 26th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society.
  18. Ranjbari, M., Shams Esfandabadi, Z., Ferraris, A., Quatraro, F., Rehan, M., Nizami, A.S., Gupta, V.K., Lam, S.S., Aghbashlo, M., Tabatabaei, M., 2022. Biofuel supply chain management in the circular economy transition: An inclusive knowledge map of the field. Chemosphere 296, 133968.
  19. Ranjbari, M., Shams Esfandabadi, Z., Scagnelli, S.D., Siebers, P.O., Quatraro, F., 2021a. Recovery agenda for sustainable development post COVID-19 at the country level: developing a fuzzy action priority surface. Environ. Dev. Sustain.
  20. Ranjbari, M., Shams Esfandabadi, Z., Zanetti, M.C., Scagnelli, S.D., Siebers, P.O., Aghbashlo, M., Peng, W., Quatraro, F., Tabatabaei, M., 2021b. Three pillars of sustainability in the wake of COVID-19: A systematic review and future research agenda for sustainable development. J. Clean. Prod. 297, 126660.
  21. Ranjbari, M., Saidani, M., Shams Esfandabadi, Z., Peng, W., Lam, S.S., Aghbashlo, M., Quatraro, F., Tabatabaei, M., 2021c. Two decades of research on waste management in the circular economy: Insights from bibliometric, text mining, and content analyses. J. Clean. Prod. 314, 128009.
  22. Shams Esfandabadi, H., Ghamary Asl, M., Shams Esfandabadi, Z., Gautam, S., Ranjbari, M., 2022. Drought assessment in paddy rice fields using remote sensing technology towards achieving food security and SDG2. Br. Food J.
  23. Sterman, J.D., 2006. Learning from Evidence in a Complex World. Am. J. Public Health 96, 505–514.
  24. Sterman, J.D., 2000. Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World, Irwin McGraw-Hill. Jeffrey J. Shelstad.
  25. Subramaniam, Y., Masron, T.A., Azman, N.H.N., 2019. The impact of biofuels on food security. Int. Econ. 160, 72–83.
  26. Weng, Y., Chang, S., Cai, W., Wang, C., 2019. Exploring the impacts of biofuel expansion on land use change and food security based on a land explicit CGE model: A case study of China. Appl. Energy 236, 514–525.
  27. Yan, D., Liu, L., Li, J., Wu, J., Qin, W., Werners, S.E., 2021. Are the planning targets of liquid biofuel development achievable in China under climate change? Agric. Syst. 186, 102963.

Files

Cited by

Share

How to cite

Statistics